Naturally, risk-averse individuals prefer cryptocurrencies, metals, and the Japanese Yen as safe-haven assets when the dollar is unstable. Recently the banking crisis in America and Europe has resulted in the decline of the US Dollar against major currency pairs.

Bitcoin and US dollar

On the long-term monthly and weekly timeframes, we have a strong bearish decline of Bitcoin against the dollar targeting the 12,000-15,000 price handles. In the short run, due to the crisis mentioned above, Bitcoin has been resurgent against the dollar. Using smart money concepts of supply and demand, we anticipate Bitcoin to mitigate the fresh supply sitting at a 29,000 price handle. Once it mitigates we have two options;

  1. If it breaks above (blue arrow), we expect it to rise further targeting the 40,000-50,000 price handle.
  2. If it mitigates and fails to break higher, we will look for sell opportunities targeting the 12,000- 15,000 price handles.

We have a bias for option 2, where Bitcoin is expected to register a further decline against the dollar. Therefore we will be in the look out for change in structure and confirmation in break of structure.

The above options will only be confirmed on the lower timeframes, preferably the 4-hour chart.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.


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