FOREX WATCHLIST WEEK 28, 2023
Towards the close of Q2 2023, Gold had completed its rally against the Dollar. Q3 ushered a shift in order flow where we saw Gold form new lows at 190 price handle. Presently we are witnessing a completion of a bullish correction. In the coming days or weeks we have two scenarios likely to play out.
- Bearish continuation targeting 1840 levels
- Continuation of the bullish correction targeting 1960-1980 levels.
I favor the first scenario.
On the Daily timeframe, we are witnessing a flip of a previous strong demand zone. We have two scenarios and possible option on how to trade them;
- After the break of structure, we anticipate a correction targeting a previous supply. At this level we can sell targeting the order block in green or the fair value gap.
- After the break, we can witness a bearish continuation with no bullish correction targeting the same levels identified above. If this scenario we will buy targeting the unmitigated supply.
On the 4 hour time frame, we are awaiting a break of structure. Previously we registered a Change of character indication a shift in order flow to bearish. Once we have a break of structure, the shift will be confirmed. Once this happens we will look to sell at a fair value gap, fresh order block or unmitigated supply targeting the fresh order bloc (FOB) or the liquidity. Our long term target is the break of weekly swing structure.
Across major pairs we are witnessing signs of weakening bullish pressure against the Japanese Yen. AUDJPY has formed new lows (CHOCH & BOS). Presently we are awaiting a bullish correction targeting any of the identified fresh order blocks. Our preference is the fresh order block with the liquidity sitting above. Projected exit is the liquidity, unmitigated demand or the fair value gap sitting below.
The proposed oil supply cuts propped the Canadian Dollar. Presently, across major currencies we are witnessing a bullish correction before a bearish continuation. For the AUDCAD, we have a CHOCH & BOS suggesting a shift in order flow targeting the unmitigated regions and fair value gaps above. Once the pair indicates the bullish correction is coming to an end, that’s when I will enter the market targeting the liquidity below.
This pair has been on a downtrend for a while now. The bearish momentum is not over yet. At the moment we have a minor bullish correction. Once the market mitigates the supply sitting above, we will enter the market targeting the liquidity below.