Author: Gitau Morris

SWISS FRANC VS JAPANESE YEN (CHFJPY)
SWISS FRANC VS JAPANESE YEN (CHFJPY)

The monthly timeframe which represents our long-term outlook indicates a bearish outlook. We are witnessing a return to an old supply in the region of 147 price handles.

CHFJPY 3 MONTHS

Currently, we are witnessing a bullish correction targeting the 147-149 price handles. This bullish correction is fueled by the resurgent Swiss Franc across major pairs owing to the prevailing banking crisis and uncertainty in Europe. Mitigation of the supply at this regions will trigger a continuation of the bearish slide targeting 127-135 regions. How do we intend to trade this pair? We have confluence presenting itself in the form of liquidity and fresh supply zones at 147.8-148.4. We are placing our sell limit order at 148.5 targeting 138.9 (conservative target).

DAILY CHART CHFJPY

If the pair break structure at 137.6;
1. There is likely to be a bullish correction that will present additional sell limits.
2. The bearish slide will aggressively target the unmitigated zone of 127-132.
We will update our outlook as the market continues to give us additional information. Kindly note our analysis is based on smart money concepts; supply and demand. As you consume our content and analysis, do note we are swing traders.

Risk Warning: Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading financial markets involve risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.
March 29, 2023
EVOLUTION OF A FOREX TRADER

EVOLUTION OF A FOREX TRADER

You have seen posts about forex traders making millions and living large. A part of you is excited and desires to get into this thing called forex trading, you want to get the bag. You sign up for a demo account and decide you are going to make it. Welcome to the stages you will have to go through if you want to make it as a forex trader. Do note I am sharing from experience the actual stages you will endure, yes endure before you taste success.

STAGE 1; THE IGNORANT TRADER.

For the sake of this post lets us assume the trader’s name is Joe. He is excited about forex trading, he consumes e-books and videos on forex trading hurriedly. A demo account is opened and Joe is making trades here and there. Some are in profit some are running losses but Joe is determined to continue. After a while, Joe figures he is getting better at it, a few profitable trades have convinced him he is good to go. He even wonders, why is it so hard for others. I don’t see what the fuss is about. You are right Joe, you don’t see. You are in darkness, a world full of ignorance. The false confidence triggers some decisions, Joe decides to open and fund his first live account.

Beginners Luck

For all he knows, he has begun his journey of making money, unaware his journey is about to evolve. A few trades into it and he has made X dollars in profit. Damn, Joe, you are on fire. Additional trades are made, with the possibility of more profits, Joe is excited. At this point, Joe is unaware that he only possesses about 5 % knowledge, which leaves a whole 95% of ignorance that is about to slap him in the face. The markets do what they always do, transfer wealth from the impatient and incompetent to the competent and patient. He blows his first account and possibly cannot function properly (I remember my first blown account). The transition from demo to live trading tricks you into believing you just replicate the same set of decisions and voila, you’ve made it. You forget that this is a live environment with the possibility of loss or gain; odds, and right now, odds are not in your favor. Beginner’s luck has played a cruel trick on many forex traders. At this stage, trader psychology, risk management, and discipline make up the 95% that Joe wasn’t aware of.

Humbled and hurt by this experience, Joe is not deterred. He buys and enrolls in a course. He seeks to understand what happened.

STAGE 2; THE STUDENT.

Hi first loss is still haunting him and Joe aggressively consumes a lot of forex content, in fact, he consumes everything forex from anyone. Joe, driven by passion and possibly heartbreak jumps from strategy to strategy, indicator to indicator searching for the Holy Grail. Trading strategies and styles are largely dependent on trader psychology currently undeveloped in Joe. Luckily Joe meets a mentor, let us call him Mark. Tapping into his experience, Mark untangles the world of forex and illuminates Joe’s path. Mark shares his experience to encourage Joe. Gradually, Joe’s ignorance levels subside as his confidence and competence increase. After spending time mentoring his student, Mark eventually sends his apprentice into the world.

STAGE THREE; A TRADER REINVENTED

Joe has increased levels of awareness, competence, and confidence. He knows what to do and when to do it but his discipline is somewhat inconsistent. He hasn’t fully matured, therefore he makes mistakes willingly, driven by fear and greed. Unfortunately, Joe blows another account, only this time, he knows why. Joe accepts the responsibility and now understands that his success is dependent on his ability to remain disciplined and reinforce his trading psychology. Joe is ready to transition.

STAGE FOUR; COMPETENT TRADER

It has been two years since his first loss. Joe has learned that less is more in forex and that slow is fast. He has developed his unique risk management and trading strategy. Joe is patient in his approach and it shows in his consistent profitability. Fellow traders recognize his progress, the general public is interested in his success.

STAGE FIVE; MASTER TRADER

Experience has compounded Joe’s skill in that he is able to analyze the market and see potential setups and pitfalls. Joe trades lesser than before but makes more per trade. He has evolved to desire higher-quality challenges. At this stage, traders receive independent contract offers from established funds and prop firms because they have a track record of consistency and profitability. They are mature masters. Even if they stumble, they know how to get back up. Unbeknownst to Joe, he isn’t getting the bag as he thought he would, he is making bank consistently. He is financially free and fulfilled.

Such is the evolution of forex trading. It takes approximately two to three years to get to stages 4 and 5. The majority give up in stage one and you will hear them calling forex a scam, a manipulated industry. Knowledge is power, right knowledge is freedom. Prospective traders, submit yourselves to time, you will eventually mature. Prioritize mentorship in your quest to learn forex trading, it is worth it.

As I write this, I am transitioning into stage 4, keyword transitioning. I still make silly mistakes that hurt my consistency. I intend to walk with you in this journey, I purpose to give you forex content raw and unfiltered.

March 28, 2023
US 30 TRADE IDEA
US 30 TRADE IDEA

The US30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 30 large, blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Inversely related to the US Dollar, they move in the opposite direction. A rise in the US 30 signals a decline of the US Dollar and vice versa.

On the weekly time frame which represents our long-term outlook we have a bearish set up. The index failed to break a previous high and created a new low. We are witnessing signs of a strong dollar recovery that will result in the bearish continuation of the US30.

USD 30 DAILY

On the daily time frame, we registered a break in structure. Presently we are witnessing a bullish correction of the bearish impulse move. We have two options of entry;
1. The aggressive entry represented by the unmitigated daily supply at 33,500 that broke structure.
2. Conservative entry represented by the unmitigated swing supply structure that engineered the move represented by 34,080 price handle.
While we do have a bearish imprint on this index, we favour the conservative entry though our analysis shows the aggressive entry is still valid.

We have two exits favoring short term (scalpers &day traders) and long-term (swing & position) traders, 30,400 and 28,300 respectively.

We have a similar outlook on US 500 index.

Our analysis and trade strategy is based on smart money concepts (SMC), particularly supply and demand. We are naturally swing traders with long term market outlook influencing our analysis.

Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.
March 27, 2023
US DOLLAR MEXICAN PESO FORECAST

US DOLLAR MEXICAN PESO

The long term outlook on the monthly timeframes shows a very strong US Dollar against the Mexican Peso (MXN). The Mexican Peso has strongly recovered against the Dollar since May 2020, this analysis is similar to the weakness of the Dollar against the South African Rand. The price levels have eventually returned to the demand zone at 17-18 price handle.

USDMXN WEEKLY

USDMXN-DAILY

Naturally we adopt smart money approach in our analysis. The institutional order flow show that there is a change of character on the Daily timeframe. After the change in character we expect a minor correction to pick buy orders sitting at the 17.9-17.8 levels before resuming the bullish momentum targeting the 20 price handles with potential to go even higher to mitigate the fresh supply sitting at the 23 price handle.

Using supply and demand approach, we have a bullish bias with our entries placed at the 17.8-17.9 levels. We are targeting the 19-22 price handles for extreme swing traders.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

March 25, 2023
US DOLLAR VS SOUTH AFRICAN RAND, USDZAR SHORT IDEA

USDZAR SHORT IDEA

Exotic currency pairs do possess a certain allure to experienced traders in terms of returns. The South African Rand (ZAR) has been battered lately due to macroeconomic data and political upheavals experienced lately. These geopolitical and economic risks are correctly priced into the market

USDZAR

Using the smart money concepts, we are witnessing a return to a previous supply established in 2021 and an elimination of price inefficiency. The risks highlighted above only serve to drive the price back to the identified supply.

USDZAR DTF

Currently, we do not have a confirmed set up though market data indicates we are likely to witness a breakout in the coming weeks. On the Daily chart, we are waiting for a break of the daily structure at the 18 price handle. Once this is confirmed, we expect a retracement to the confluence of fresh supply and liquidity sitting at 18.5 price handle. At that price, we will place our sell orders targeting the downside 17-16.5 price handle. Should the price fail to break lower after consolidation and instead breaks higher, this setup is declared invalid and we shall adjust accordingly.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

March 25, 2023
BITCOIN/ US DOLLAR (BTC/USD) OUTLOOK
BITCOIN/ US DOLLAR (BTC/USD) OUTLOOK

Naturally, risk-averse individuals prefer cryptocurrencies, metals, and the Japanese Yen as safe-haven assets when the dollar is unstable. Recently the banking crisis in America and Europe has resulted in the decline of the US Dollar against major currency pairs.

BTCUSD

On the long-term monthly and weekly timeframes, we have a strong bearish decline of Bitcoin against the dollar targeting the 12,000-15,000 price handles. In the short run, due to the crisis mentioned above, Bitcoin has been resurgent against the dollar. Using smart money concepts of supply and demand, we anticipate Bitcoin to mitigate the fresh supply sitting at a 29,000 price handle. Once it mitigates we have two options;
1. If it breaks above (blue arrow), we expect it to rise further targeting the 40,000-50,000 price handle.
2. If it mitigates and fails to break higher, we will look for sell opportunities targeting the 12,000- 15,000 price handles.
We have a bias for option 2, where Bitcoin is expected to register a further decline against the dollar. Therefore we will be in the look out for change in structure and confirmation in break of structure.

The above options will only be confirmed on the lower timeframes, preferably the 4-hour chart.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.
March 25, 2023
How to Start as a Forex Trader (9 Steps)
How to Start as a Forex Trader (9 Steps)

The pursuit and achievement of financial freedom is a universal desire focused on exploiting opportunities. Financial services offer such opportunities however limited access and knowledge prevents would-be investors, speculators, and traders from benefiting from such opportunities. Forex trading is particularly unforgiving in nature considering the technical and complex knowledge required to profitably and sustainably trade for the long term. Many delve into this industry with very little knowledge assuring their failure. In my experience, if one follows the next steps, they can start trading with improved odds of success.
1. Invest in knowledge/competence
From experience, I would define the forex market as a wealth creation mechanism that transfers wealth from the incompetent and impatient to the patient and competent. Desire and passion are not enough if you don’t possess the right knowledge. Knowledge includes;
1. Technical analysis involving; candlesticks, chart patterns, identifying trends, channels, pivots and trendlines.
2. Risk management; risk is everything when it comes to trading.
3. Trade management; calculating entries and exits.
4. Trading psychology; a major factor in becoming a successful Forex trader.
The Bible, Hosea 4:6 is a beautiful reminder “My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge…..”
1. Study under a mentor
While this may add extra time and cost it is worth the investment. You don’t want to insist on repeating mistakes others have made before you. One benefit of studying under a mentor is that it exposes you to the hidden and pitfalls and how to avoid them. One example is the determination of the type of trader you will become; swing, scalper, day etc. You get a first-hand experience of what it means to be a trader. Further, a mentor helps you understand and form your own trading psychology required to survive and eventually thrive. In my experience these are top mentors whose content is free and can be helpful;
1. Phantom trading (https://phantomtradingfx.com/)
2. Falcon trading (https://falconfx.com/)
3. Vertex Investing (https://www.vertexinvesting.co.uk/)
4. Intelligence FX really relevant for East Africans (https://www.intelligenceforex.com/)
I would add myself to the list but that would be tooting my own horn ????
1. Practice charting on Tradingview
Experienced traders tend to favour this charting software due to its friendly interactive interface, charting tools etc. It has lots of information that is relevant for traders studying price action. Further, it allows traders to embed their own scripts onto the platform. I consider trading view to be my trading bible. : )
1. Find a Reputable Broker
There are thousands of brokers out there but very few are worth your capital. There are important points to consider when choosing a broker. Such as:
1. What is their software like? You want to make sure that they offer a high-quality software platform, ideally MetaTrader4 or 5 on android PC and IOS.
2. As well as a powerful platform, you want to make sure that your broker offers excellent customer support.
3. Fast trade executions
4. Low spreads and no Commissions where possible.
5. Flexible leverage to suit your trading style. I do recommend leverage of 1:500 for beginners.
6. Check their reviews online and see what other traders think about their services.
Disclaimer, some brokers will entice you with bonuses or offers, in my honest opinion, avoid the freebies. I have learnt, there is nothing for free in this world.
1. Practice on a Demo Account
Practice makes improvement. I insist beginners place 50-100 trades on a demo account and thereafter assess whether they are ready to go live. It is risky and ill- advised to start off as a Forex trader using real money in a live environment without going through this phase. You can use the time to develop important skills, knowledge and experience for trading. Starting in a demo allows you to build major skills for trading including;
1. Trading psychology
2. Technical analysis
3. Risk Management
4. Trade Management
5. Trading Strategies
Whilst you are using your time wisely practicing in a demo, this will allow you to build your trade plan.
1. Create a Trading plan/Journal.
A trading plan is specific to each trader. Some offer theirs for free but I recommend you develop yours from scratch. Ideally it serves like your personal journal where you record all your thoughts and gradually it evolves to a plan where you document what to do, what not to do, how to do etc.

Having a trading plan is essential if you want to take your trading seriously and if you want to become a professional trader. In addition, a trading plan gives structure to your trades. Remember that if you are not following a trading plan, then essentially you are gambling.

A trading plan can consist of; strategies, time-frames, indicators, processes, risk management, and targets. It allows you to monitor your performance and review your trades which is massively important to help you to improve and grow as a Forex trader. Recall I mentioned you study under a mentor, it would be beneficial if you actually saw and studied their trading plan, essentially you are studying their game plan. I recommend the trading journal offered by Coldwater FX and Phantom trading. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPAKl1Ap6Ic&t=178s)
1. Determination of instruments to trade
The forex market has several categories of instruments each with unique risks and reward characteristics. We have currencies, metals, indices, crypto and commodities. When starting out it is recommended you focus on one class of instruments. After successfully mastering one class and your trading style you can move into new asset classes. Point to note is that some currencies, metals and commodities move in the same direction.
1. Start Small
Considering this industry has a low success rate but with big margins, I recommend you start small. Treat trading like a business and you will certainly outlast majority of traders. A great tip is to remember that trading is not a race, it is a marathon. It is important to take your time through each stage of your trading journey.

Give yourself plenty of practice in the demo as you gather vital experience. When you are ready to trade with real money, certainly start small and use low risk per trade during your transition to real money.
1. Be Disciplined
Once you have developed a trading plan that works for you, stick to it religiously. Interacting with experienced traders you will quickly discover discipline and consistency are key pillars in their career. No matter how enticing the market looks or a fellow trader shares with your their projection, stick to your plan, it will pay off in the end.

In closing, it would be pointless to try out these steps in a random nature. Stick with the sequence and allow the market to shape your thinking.

How to Start as a Forex Trader – Conclusion
1. Invest in knowledge/competence
2. Study under a mentor
3. Practice charting on Tradingview
4. Find a reputable broker
5. Practice on a Demo Account
6. Create a Trading plan
7. Determination of instruments to trade
8. Take it slow and steady
9. Be disciplined and keep your focus
If you follow all of these points in their sequence, then you are well on your way to becoming a consistently profitable Forex trader, best of luck!
March 25, 2023
MY FOREX TRADING JOURNEY; A KENYAN ODYSSEY

MY FOREX TRADING JOURNEY; A KENYAN ODYSSEY

The beginning.

The year is 2014, a recently employed young man stumbles upon forex trading information. Ever interacted with a young ambitious Kenyan? You can feel the eagerness almost reckless drive and desire to `make money’. I was no exception. Quickly I signed up for a demo trading account with Windsor Brokers and practiced barely for 3 months. With 300 dollars saved up, I opened an account with Alpari Brokers (notice the shift). With my little experience, my style was heavily reliant on technical indicators, particularly Relative Strength Indicator otherwise known as RSI. For beginners, I promise to write an article on why I don’t use technical indicators. My trading rules centered on a daily profit target of 10 dollars and NO trading on Fridays. My first trading day was on a Thursday, I went short on USDJPY. By the close of the day, I had made my 10 dollars profit, I was now a forex trader, or so I thought.

Mistakes and lessons

I get up one early Friday morning, against all wisdom, I decide to trade. After all, who doesn’t want an extra 10 dollars. By noon I was down 170 dollars, by evening I had lost 300 dollars, all that was left in my account was 10 dollars. At this point I feel the need to tell people that once forex breaks your heart, nothing can ever come close, you are immune. I took a short hiatus to deal with my pain. Close family members and a friend lent me 500 dollars; I was back in the market. This time I promised myself to be cautious and I did make some money using RSI. Initial profits had me thinking, this is easy, how wrong I was. I had made myself a second promise not to ever trade on my phone. One Easter morning I got on my MT4 app on my phone (second mistake) and went short on USDCHF . Later in the day I am down by 225 dollars, then it dawns on me, I had traded 1 lot instead of 0.01 lot. You can imagine how this particular story ends.

Ignorance and Greed

The year is 2018, after 4 years of nursing my wounds, I am back, armed with knowledge on forex patterns and 1,000 dollars capital to boot. I would proceed to make approximately 50 dollars a week for two months and my capital grew to approximately 1,300 dollars. I traded all forex pairs I could think of in pursuit of maximum profit, recall the reckless desire to make money? In summary I blew the account and yours truly was now 1,600 dollars poorer since 2014.

Hard decisions

At this juncture, you have two options, quit or persevere. In 2019, I decided to move away from currencies to synthetic indices. The decision was as adventurous as it was expensive. I deposited 500 dollars and proceeded in my journey. My main motivation for trading indices was that the market never closed, automatically it meant more opportunities, lets phrase it correctly; greed. Within the first week of trading, I was up by 300 dollars, truly, this was the best decision I thought. By the following week, I had added 300 dollars capital to cover my negative position, you can guess what happened. I lost it all.

I came to once conclusion, I can make money but I cannot keep it. Common sense would dictate I focus on acquiring additional or even different knowledge to stem further losses. Common sense did not prevail, instead I took part of my school fees and deposited as my trading capital. Luckily, I was able to make some profit and withdrew the school fees. My account grew from 800 dollars to 3,000 dollars. I was teeming with confidence or was it pride? I blew that too.

False Competence and confidence

Mid 2020, I liquidated an asset and deposited 3,000 dollars and went back. I believe I was displaying signs of addiction and if you judged me so, I would understand. I managed to trade successfully from 3,000 dollars to 14,000 dollars and then to 20,000 dollars. In Kenyan currency, I was a millionaire on paper. If you have ever tried the aforementioned synthetic indices you know they make crazy moves engineered by a computer simulation, not real market conditions. I woke up one morning and all my capital was gone, the entire 20,000 dollars. I was numb. At this point, my entire trading career has amounted to losses of 25,000 dollars. It was time to admit, whatever knowledge I though I had was useless. It was time to go back to the drawing board.

Recovery and growth

Prior to my last loss, I kept interacting with traders who kept mentioning smart money concepts and supply and demand. Evidently, they seemed to know what they were doing. I decided it was time to study a new concept from the beginning. For 9 months in 2021 I studied and traded my demo account with EGM securities. Gradually my competence and confidence improved.

The Bible, Hosea 4:6 is fit for my journey “My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge…..”. Right knowledge is freedom. September 2021, I deposited money in to my account and went back to trading, having learnt my lessons.

As I write this, I am consistently building my portfolio with HF Markets, FXTM and Windsor Brokers. In October 2024, I shall clock one year as a strategy provider with Windsor Brokers, and 2 years with HF Markets. I see progress, gradual consistent progress. Check out my performance Windsor Brokers profile

Have I seen growth and maturity as a trader? definitely. Has my mental orientation and approach changed? You bet. Have I made it to the top, not even close, I am making progress. I make it a habit to always share my journey as the first content I cover in my course.

In conclusion, my journey to recovery and growth is on course, stick around, I will share it with you.

March 24, 2023