FOREX WATCHLIST, WEEK 36, 2023

EURCAD

On the 4 hour chart, we are monitoring possible sell opportunities. After the impulsive move represented by the green arrow, the pair is in a bullish correction that seems to be losing momentum. Presently we have a break of structure. I am awaiting a correction targeting a trend line liquidity and fresh order block on the 5 minute charts. The second alternative entry is the fresh order block on the 4 hour timeframe My proposed exit is either the fresh order block at 1.451 or the liquidity at 1.4485. Kindly note, once we have a break in the Keys Structure marker, we will be shift the market structure to bearish targeting 1.42 region.

EURNZD

On the weekly timeframe, we have completed a bullish correction that has been active for the better part of 2022 and 2023. On the 4 hour time frame, we have a change of character and a break of structure. Presently, we are waiting for a correction targeting the Fresh order blocks 1.831 or 1.83395 where we will place our sell limit orders. The targeted exit is the Fresh Order block sitting at the bottom of the swing structure at 1.77280.

XAGUSD

For the better part of August 2023, we witnessed a bullish correction on XAGUSD. The correction grabbed liquidity represented by Equal High (EQLH). Immediately after the liquidity grab we saw a rejection. Presently we are awaiting a break of structure that coincides with a flip zone. Once we register a break of structure, we will place our sell limits appropriately targeting the fresh order block (FOB) sitting below or the trend line liquidity on the daily charts.

 

US 100 Index

Investors reaction to disappointing data from China’s economy is reflected in the bearish momentum we are presently witnessing. We have a break of a previous flip zone which informs our bearish outlook of this index. We have two possible entry points; 15234 and 15466. I favour the former entry targeting to exit at 14626 or 14329 if I am patient.

BTCUSD

Following the poor economic data from China and the bankruptcy fears , the dollar appears to be a safe haven for most investors. The bearish slide of BTCUSD confirms this. Presently, we have two option so how to trade BTCUSD. First option is a bullish correction targeting the 28913 price handle where we have a sell limit order placed. Second option is a possibility of a consolidation near the demand zone before a break to the downside. We do not have a viable sell limit for the second option.

 

EURUSD

The strong resurgence of the dollar in the second half of the year has created bearish trading opportunities for cross USD pairs. Presently, EURUSD has reversed from the gains made earlier. I am anticipating a bullish correction targeting the fresh order block at 1.09896 or the unmitigated region sitting above. Sell limit is placed at the 1.09896 with the exit targeted at the liquidity sitting below at 1.06363.

 

EURZAR

For the better part of the year, the South Africa Rand has weakened against major currencies. Q2 we saw a reversal. Presently we have completed a bullish correction that grabbed the trend line liquidity. We have or sell limit orders placed either at the liquidity level of 20.67125 or unmitigated supply at 20.71422. Our projected exit is the liquidity sitting below the equal lows at 19.209.

 

TRADE RECAP 2, JULY, 2023

This is a trade recap for XAUUSD, GBPJPY, EURCHF and GBPCHF. The recap is in video format. Kindly subscribe and like our videos.

 

FOREX WATCHLIST, WEEK 31, 2023

Earlier in the month I posted analysis of major currencies indicating several scenarios. We are in the tail end of corrective moves, we are anticipating continuation of the main trend.

 

XAUUSD

After strong data from the US on unemployment, the dollar rallied causing XAUUSD to slide. Presently, we have broken a key zone and formed a new low after a change of character. We are anticipating a minor bullish correction targeting the unmitigated zone. Our targeted exit is the 1902 liquidity.

 

GBPJPY

The Bank of Japan issued an unexpected monetary policy update that propped the Yen against major currencies. After a change of character (CHoCH), we are presently awaiting a minor bullish correction targeting either unmitigated zone. Our targeted exit is the flip zone/demand zone at 170 price handle.

 

 

AUDJPY

We are witnessing a completion of bullish correction and a creation of a new low. Our targeted entry is the liquidity at 95.4 and exiting ta 88.15 price handle. Kindly note the pair has a possibility of pushing higher targeting the fresh order blocks sitting higher.

DXY

After a strong unemployment data, the dollar index is resurging. Cross USD pairs are broadly bearish awaiting key NFP data this week. Presently we have a flip zone identified by the fresh order block (in green). I have placed a buy limit at that region targeting the 102 region. Point to note, the same set up is also valid for USDCAD.

EURCHF

After a bearish slide, we are in witnessing a bullish correction. Buy limit placed at the unmitigated demand. The long term trend is still bearish.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

 

 Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

TRADE RECAP-JULY 2023

We have shared our trade recap of AUDUSD, USDJPY, and CADJPY. Kindly watch it on Youtube and TikTok.

 

FOREX WATCHLIST WEEK 28, 2023

XAUUSD

Towards the close of Q2 2023, Gold had completed its rally against the Dollar. Q3 ushered a shift in order flow where we saw Gold form new lows at 190 price handle. Presently we are witnessing a completion of a bullish correction. In the coming days or weeks we have two scenarios likely to play out.

1. Bearish continuation targeting 1840 levels
2. Continuation of the bullish correction targeting 1960-1980 levels.

I favor the first scenario.

EURCHF

On the Daily timeframe, we are witnessing a flip of a previous strong demand zone. We have two scenarios and possible option on how to trade them;

1. After the break of structure, we anticipate a correction targeting a previous supply. At this level we can sell targeting the order block in green or the fair value gap.
2. After the break, we can witness a bearish continuation with no bullish correction targeting the same levels identified above. If this scenario we will buy targeting the unmitigated supply.

GBPCHF

On the 4 hour time frame, we are awaiting a break of structure. Previously we registered a Change of character indication a shift in order flow to bearish. Once we have a break of structure, the shift will be confirmed. Once this happens we will look to sell at a fair value gap, fresh order block or unmitigated supply targeting the fresh order bloc (FOB) or the liquidity. Our long term target is the break of weekly swing structure.

AUDJPY

Across major pairs we are witnessing signs of weakening bullish pressure against the Japanese Yen. AUDJPY has formed new lows (CHOCH & BOS). Presently we are awaiting a bullish correction targeting any of the identified fresh order blocks. Our preference is the fresh order block with the liquidity sitting above. Projected exit is the liquidity, unmitigated demand or the fair value gap sitting below.

AUDCAD

The proposed oil supply cuts propped the Canadian Dollar. Presently, across major currencies we are witnessing a bullish correction before a bearish continuation. For the AUDCAD, we have a CHOCH & BOS suggesting a shift in order flow targeting the unmitigated regions and fair value gaps above. Once the pair indicates the bullish correction is coming to an end, that’s when I will enter the market targeting the liquidity below.

EURGBP

This pair has been on a downtrend for a while now. The bearish momentum is not over yet. At the moment we have a minor bullish correction. Once the market mitigates the supply sitting above, we will enter the market targeting the liquidity below.

 

MARKET OUTLOOK 2 Q3 2023

CROSS JPY PAIRS

As we cross into the second half of 2023, we have updated the market outlook with cross JPY pairs bullish in the short term and bearish in the long term. Later on, we will update our outlook as more setups present themselves.

GBPJPY LONG

On the monthly time frame, we have a bullish correction targeting the 180 price handle. On the same time frame, the pair seems to be in consolidation. While our outlook is bullish in the short term, we are anticipating a shift in the market structure once the pair mitigates the 180 price handle. Once setups are confirmed, we will post them.

CHFJPY SHORT

Unlike GBPJPY, the CHFJPY on the 4-hour is printing a bearish order flow. We have a rather weak bearish view of this pair. That will change if the pair breaks the new low on the 4-hour timeframe and the daily low.

CADJPY LONG

Similar to GBPJPY, the outlook is a bullish correction in the short term targeting the 108 price handle. On the daily timeframe, we have a confirmed change of character that shifted the market from bullish to bearish. Once the bullish correction hits our point of interest, we will look for long-term sell orders.

USDJPY LONG

Similar to GBPJPY, the outlook is a bullish correction in the short term targeting the 145 price handle. On the daily timeframe, we have a confirmed change of character that shifted the market from bullish to bearish. Once the bullish correction hits our point of interest, we will look for long-term sell orders targeting 128 price handles.

 AUDCHF LONG

Following the unexpected rate hike by the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA), the Australian dollar is enjoying strong bullish momentum though it’s a correction in a larger bearish trend. Further, a general weakening of the Swiss franc across major pairs fuels this bullish correction targeting the 0.62 region. Presently, we are awaiting a change of character on the daily timeframe and then a minor bearish correction as buy orders are picked at the 0.58-0.59 price handles. Our targeted exit is the 0.62 region.

 

Watch video

https://youtu.be/p7q3ffD1Sh0

MARKET OUTLOOK Q3 2023

As we cross into the second half of 2023, we have updated the market outlook with the dollar bullish across major pairs. Presently we have bearish setups we are monitoring. Later on, we will update our outlook as more setups present themselves.

BTCUSD SHORT

On the 4-hour chart, we anticipate a break in structure thereafter a bullish retracement where we will place our sell limit orders in the unmitigated order block. Our target profit market is the 20,000 price handle though we see BTC USD falling further toward the 12-15,000 price handle.

XAUUSD SHORT

Though our outlook is bearish, we can only confirm it once the pair crosses the 1940-1930 region thereby breaking internal structure. IF that happens we will have a confirmed shift in market structure. Our intention is to await a bullish retracement to 1980, 1990, 2001, or 2028 price handles where we will place our sell limit orders targeting the liquidity at 1812 near the weekly swing structure.

GBPUSD SHORT

Similar to the XAUUSD outlook, on the daily timeframe, we are awaiting the break of the Key structure Daily (KSD). Once we have the break of KSD, we anticipate a bullish correction targeting the unmitigated region at 1.225, representing our sell limit region. Our targeted exit is the liquidity sitting at a 1.19 price handle.

GBPCAD SHORT

As we await the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision, we presently have a break of structure. We anticipate a bullish retracement targeting the fresh order block (FOB) where we have our sell limit orders. Our targeted exit is the liquidity at 1.62 or 1.60 price handles.

AUDCAD SHORT

Following the unexpected rate hike by the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA), the Australian dollar is enjoying strong bullish momentum though it’s a correction in a larger bearish trend. We are anticipating sell limit entries at the conservative area of 0.909 price handle. Our profit target is the fresh order block (FOB) at 0.87 or the liquidity below at 0.866.

GBPNZD FORECAST UPDATE

In the one-month timeframe, GBPNZD has mitigated the long-term supply zone (in red).

The long-term outlook on the monthly timeframe is largely bearish, though the pair was in bullish mitigation or correction. Presently on the monthly time frame, we have strongly protected highs with weak lows confirming our bearish market structure.

After the bullish correction, the pair turned bearish, targeting the unmitigated demand at the 1.80 price handle

Following the geopolitical risks in the United Kingdom, the GBPNZD collapsed to 1.81 levels and quickly formed a new high at the 2.0 price handle. The pair settled and then settled at the demand at the 1.88 price handle. Thereafter, the supply at 2.02 levels was mitigated.

Presently, on the 4-hour we have reversal confirmation. A change of character (CHOCH) and a break of market structure (BOS) were formed as the market grabbed liquidity as indicated.

We are anticipating a reversal on the horizon, and we have three options for selling limits:

1. A fair value gap at 2.018705 price handle
2. Liquidity at 2.018405 per handle.
3. Fresh order block (FOB) in green at 2.017630 price handle.

Our projected exit sits at 1.889 price handles.

NB; our forecast is based on institutional order flow suitable for swing traders.

Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.

 

 

 

 

NZDCHF  FORECAST

Across major pairs, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has been bullish creating new lows on monthly timeframes for all cross-CHF pairs. Presently, on the monthly timeframe, we have a bearish market structure.

On the daily timeframe, we are looking at a possible shift in order flow from bearish to bullish; a corrective bullish move.

On the 4-hour chart, we have a change of character (CHOCH) and break of structure (BOS) confirming the shift in order flow. How do we intend to trade this pair?

1. We have an aggressive entry located at the unmitigated demand zone at a 0.55 price handle
2. A conservative entry sitting below 0.5443 price handle. We favor this conservative entry since there is liquidity sitting around this region.

We have two possible exits situated around the two green fresh-order blocks (FOB) at 5.58 and 0.59 price handles respectively. Our preference is the higher FOB that has liquidity.

I strongly recommend we wait for the pair to break the Key structure Daily (KSD). Thereafter we can buy as the bearish correction targets the unmitigated order blocks.

NB: Our analysis is strictly based on supply and demand, suitable for swing traders.

 Risk Warning: CFDs carry a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and I am not telling you where or when to take a trade. I express my personal opinion only. Trading in financial markets involves risk. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading. I do not recommend any specific trade or action, and any trades you decide to take are your own.